Election latest: Reform UK overtakes Tories for first time in new poll (2024)

Key points
  • Reform overtakes Tories for first time in new poll
  • Jon Craig: Farage has election debate swagger after bombshell poll
  • PM says aide's bet on election date 'very disappointing'
  • Corbyn accuses Starmer of 'rewriting history' at Sky event
  • Labour's manifesto pledges|Ed Conway checks the numbers
  • Sky News Daily:Why no surprises in Labour manifesto?
  • Battle For No 10:Catch up on key points from Sky leaders' event
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  • Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans

22:49:55

Analysis: Starmer is party's all-powerful ringmaster but there's no high-wire act under his leadership

Let's party like it's 1997. That could be the message from Labour's 2024 general election.

Back in '97, the front cover of Labour's manifesto showed a full-page photo of a mean and moody-looking Tony Blair.

The title then was "New Labour, because Britain deserves better" and the campaign song was D-Ream's Things Can Only Get Better.

This year, after 14 years of Conservative rule under five prime ministers, Labour's manifesto has a one-word title - "Change".

But the photo on the front is straight out of the 1997 New Labour playbook: Sir Keir, jacket off, sleeves rolled up, serious - stern, even. Very Tony Blair.

Sir Keir is no Tony Blair, of course. Some Labour veterans compare him to Mr Blair's predecessor, another lawyer, the late John Smith.

And at last week's seven-way electiondebate including the smaller parties, Nigel Farage dismissed Sir Keir as "Blair without the flair".

Indeed, there's nothing flashy about the contents of the 133-page 2024 manifesto. No big surprises. No big controversies either.

Read more here:

22:30:01

Sky News Daily: Why were there no surprises in Labour's manifesto?

It was Labour's turn to launch its election manifesto today. It was a restatement of the party's main policies, with no surprise announcements in the 133-page document.

Sir Keir Starmer reiterated his key pledges including no new taxes on "working people" and a promise of "economic stability".

Niall Paterson digs into Labour's promise of economic growth with Ed Conway, Sky's economics and data editor, and speaks to political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh, who was at the launch in Manchester.

Plus, John McTernan, political strategist and former political secretary to Tony Blair, discusses the politics of their manifesto and whether it matters that there were no new announcements.

👉Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts👈

22:12:32

Election debate: Penny's tax attacks like a stuck record – but may stick

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

Man of the moment Nigel Farage dismisses Labour and the Conservatives as "mushy SDP".

He says the House of Lords is an "abomination" full of party donors and he wants electoral reform and more referendums. "Scotland?" says Stephen Flynn.

This debate has been fought against the backdrop of the bombshell poll minutes before it began showing Mr Farage's Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives for the first time.

It's a massive turning point in the campaign and Penny Mordaunt's failure to attack Mr Farage during the debate and her apparent flirting with him when Angela Rayner asks if she'd welcome him into the Tory party was highly significant.

Penny Mordaunt has been like a stuck record with her attacks on Labour on tax. But she has indeed stuck at it relentlessly - and perhaps the message will stick.

In the final speeches, Angela Rayner makes a powerful appeal for Labour votes. But Mr Farage then ends as he began with his opinion poll breakthrough, declaring: "I have the courage to take on the mob. Please join the revolt".

21:59:04

Election debate: Is Mordaunt flirting with Farage on joining Tories?

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

The best clash between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner comes when the debaters get the chance to ask an opponent a question.

No surprise, then, that Penny tackles Angela on tax, specifically challenging her to rule out Labour increasing capital gains tax if Labour wins the election.

Labour's deputy leader dutifully sticks to the Starmer-Reeves script: It's not in the Labour manifesto, she says.

Not a no, says Ms Mordaunt.

Then Ms Rayner asks Ms Mordaunt a belter, taunting her: "Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative Party?"

Her reply is that Mr Farage is a "Labour enabler", but she doesn't actually say No and again she talks about what she and the Reform leader agree about and not what they disagree on.

Penny and Nigel in a bit of political flirting?

21:55:38

Election debate: Why no attacks on Nigel, Penny?

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

The best clash between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner comes when the debaters get the chance to ask an opponent a question.

No surprise, then, that Penny tackles Angela on tax, specifically challenging her to rule out Labour increasing capital gains tax if Labour wins the election.

Labour's deputy leader dutifully sticks to the Starmer-Reeves script: It's not in the Labour manifesto, she says.

Not a no, says Ms Mordaunt.

Then Ms Rayner asks Ms Mordaunt a belter, taunting her: "Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative Party?"

Her reply is that Mr Farage is a "Labour enabler", but she doesn't actually say No and again she talks about what she and the Reform leader agree about and not what they disagree on.

Penny and Nigel in a bit of political flirting?

21:51:43

Election debate: Farage on a 'dog-whistle tour' – Plaid leader

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

A shouting match on the NHS doesn't produce a clear winner. Seven loud voices all competing at once! Then it's on to education. No better.

Throughout all this, Nigel Farage repeatedly blames an "exploding population" and he and Penny Mordaunt both attack Angela Rayner on Labour's VAT on private schools. Predictable.

After an ad break the debate moves on to migration and Mr Farage mentions the "population explosion again". He says: "We voted Brexit to reduce the numbers coming in."

To begin with the debate on migration is not a shouting match, despite the politicians' opposing views. The civil exchanges don't last long, however.

Mr Farage is in a minority of one among the smaller parties. Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth accuses him of going on a "dog whistle Tour". Sharp intakes of breath in the spin room.

When the Plaid leader complains about cutting student's family visas, Mr Farage shouts: "Good! Good! You can't bring your mum to university!"

21:46:51

Election debate: Farage has a swagger about him after overtaking Tories

ByJon Craig, chief political correspondent

There's a swagger about Mr Farage in this debate. He started by gloating about Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives in a YouGov poll and now he's growing in confidence and relishing at taking on Brexit opponents.

He appears to enjoy being in a minority of one in arguments with the leaders of the other smaller parties on immigration and other Brexit issues.

Penny Mordaunt, meanwhile, keeps coming back to the Tory attack on Labour on tax. She's relentlessly on message on the Tory tax assault on Labour.

No mention yet of Rishi Sunak's D-day fiasco from either the opposition politicians or the audience, so no criticism of the PM either!

21:42:48

Election debate: SNP accuses Labour of 'shameful' response over Brexit

The SNP's Stephen Flynn has accused Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner of giving a "shameful" response to a question on Brexit during tonight's ITV leaders' debate.

The seven politicians taking part in the debate were asked if they would seek to rejoin the EU or single market.

"No," Ms Rayner said, saying Labour respected the result of the referendum.

"Shameful, shameful," Mr Flynn could be heard saying.

He later added that his party would "absolutely" seek to rejoin, as did the Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.

For the Conservatives, Penny Mordaunt said: "No, and if you have a Labour government they will take you back in, they will tie you on defence, on migration, on regulation, without any of the benefits of membership."

Nigel Farage said: "No, we are free. Unfortunately we are governed incompetently, but at least they are our mistakes and not somebody else's."

21:22:13

Analysis: Sir Keir Starmer's manifesto plans rely heavily on economy growing - but what if it doesn't?

By Ed Conway, economics and data editor

Imagine a skyscraper: the tallest you've ever seen. Imagine it surrounded by other tall buildings - a cityscape of skyscrapers.

Now imagine a small semi-detached house standing in front of those buildings.

What you're picturing in your head is about the best visual approximation of the statistical difference between the fiscal plans from most of the manifestos this year - big, tall, towering financial commitments towards higher taxes and spending - and the Labour manifesto. That small semi-detached house is Labour's manifesto.

It is, at least in fiscal term, a piddler.

Now, there's a question we can get on to about whether Labour will actually end up keeping its fiscal figures anywhere close to those promised in its manifesto, but we now have them in black and white.

Broadly speaking there are two parts to the manifesto: the bit about day-to-day spending and the bit about green investment. Neither of them introduces any new policies we hadn't already heard about.

In short, Labour plans to raise taxes by £7.4bn by 2028/29 - mostly by tackling avoidance, clamping down on non-doms and forcing private schools to charge VAT. It plans to spend about £4.8bn of that money, which doesn't sound like all that much - and it isn't. Indeed, there are real questions about whether this is enough funding to keep public services functioning, given there are big real terms cuts pencilled in in the coming years.

Even so, it implies Labour will leave a £2.5bn buffer of safety in the public finances. In other words, it looks pretty cautious.

Read more here:

20:43:13

Election debate: Farage wastes no time in gloating at poll breakthrough

By Jon Craig, chief political correspondent

The opening statements in the ITV leaders' debate may have been extremely brief, but they spoke volumes.

Predictably, Nigel Farage wasted no time in gloating about the shock opinion poll minutes before the start which put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives.

"We are now the opposition to Labour," he declared, in a boast that he has been wanting to trumpet at full volume for weeks as support for his party has risen gradually during the campaign.

And Penny Mordaunt served notice that she will go on the attack against Labour on tax in the debate, claiming she'll talk about the Tories cutting taxes and Labour raising them.

Buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Election latest: Reform UK overtakes Tories for first time in new poll (2024)

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